Election 2006 Masterpiece Analysis
by
Jim Hagedorn
(November 7, 2006)
THEY WIN – WE WIN!
- Irate Conservatives Poised to Clean Up GOP -
History teaches that mid-term elections in the sixth year of a two-term presidency can be turbulent – and often what drives voters to select “R” or “D” has as much to do with the man whose name appears on no ballot, as it does with the dominant issues of the day and qualifications and personalities of the actual candidates.
Presidents of all stripes have experienced voter-fatigue in year six. Franklin Roosevelt, General Dwight Eisenhower and Ronald Reagan are some of the more prominent, successful presidents who suffered hurtful losses. Even more telling, the parties of Presidents Gerald Ford and Lyndon Johnson endured humiliating defeats because of the Watergate scandal and inept management of the Viet Nam War, respectively.
In the fall of 1986, sporting an approval rating of 64%, the Great Communicator crisscrossed America with the energy of kid, exposed every bit of his patented upbeat personality, employed a decades-tested political formula that had captured 49 states just 24 months prior and proceeded to watch the Democrats recapture the Senate and expand an already solid House majority. In all, eight Reagan Revolutionaries were booted from the Senate and five Republican House seats shifted to the Left side of the aisle.
So how will Republicans fare this November after 2116 days of leadership from George W. Bush? To paraphrase the late Senator Lloyd Bentsen’s famous rejoinder to Senator Dan Quayle in the 1988 vice presidential debate: Mr. President, I knew Ronald Reagan. Ronald Reagan was a friend of mine. President Bush, you are no Ronald Reagan.
While mid-term debacles can setback even the most popular of political movements for no discernible reason, the pounding Republicans are about to endure will have been smartly earned.
Exactly six years ago Republicans were proverbially handed the keys to all executive and legislative branch automobiles and with lemming-like efficiency the Elephants detoured from the road of conservatism and drunkenly drove those cars over the cliffs of scandal, liberalism, incompetence, arrogance.
To say that Republicans failed to govern in accordance with the Party’s core principles is putting it mildly. GOP leadership failures and outright idiocy are so well understood that simple phrases send conservatives into convulsions. Medicare drug benefit; bridge to nowhere; No Child Left Behind; path to citizenship; whatever it takes, and religion of peace are just a few utterances that push Reagan-type loyalists to grit teeth, flare nostrils and clinch fists.
Apparently lost upon House and Senate leaders these past three Congresses is that obscure clause in Article I of the U.S. Constitution granting all legislative power to the Congress of the United States and affirming that the legislative branch is not only co-equal to the executive branch, but that the Congress is responsible for checking/limiting the power of the presidency.
Had the Congress (and when the word Congress is used in this context it is meant to infer the House, since the Senate’s Republican membership is hopelessly hapless) gone to war with the White House over illegal immigration and holding the line on frivolous domestic spending, this election’s radioactive fallout could have been contained to the Northeast, parts of the Midwest and the Left Coast.
In light of the 9-11 attacks and the open-ended war to eradicate Islamist terrorists, had the Speaker of the House publicly threatened impeachment and forced the administration to eliminate the flow of economic refugees from Mexico to the United States, this election could have been about expanding the Republican congressional majority.
Policy lapses aside, Democrats are primed to pry gavels from the hands of GOP chairmen for another reason: scandal. Tom Delay, Duke Cunningham, Robert Ney, John Doolittle, Mark Foley, Don Sherwood, Charles Taylor and Curt Weldon are some of the notable beauties Democrats are highlighting in their “Culture of Corruption” campaign.
The old adage that “all politics is local” rings damningly true for Republicans, especially those whose campaigns are headquartered in the local jail, the local rehabilitation center and the local sex therapist’s office.
Yet with exception of the Iraq War, Democrats have not articulated any serious or distinct policy differences with President Bush and the Republican Congress during this campaign.
The dirty little secret is that Democrat gains will be the result of an especially strong crop of challengers, many of whom campaigned on the Republican themes of pro-life, pro-traditional marriage, pro-gun and elimination of the federal deficit.
The impossible balancing act for new Speaker Nancy Pelosi and Majority Leader Steny Hoyer will be to act upon the Democrat’s core left wing beliefs, something that will be demanded by vocal Party supporters, while protecting the 15 to 20 moderates needed to retain power in 2008.
Meanwhile, Republicans should keep in mind that the defeat of liberal Ford paved the way for conservative Reagan and the incredible 1994 House takeover followed the dreary election of William Jefferson Clinton. Sometimes it’s best to be on the outside looking in.
SPECIAL PREDICTIONS AND ANALYSIS
UNITED STATES SENATE
Republicans will retain control of the U.S. Senate. Democrats will gain 4 seats resulting in a split of 51-49. However, the actual count will be 39 Republicans; 12 worthless liberals who claim to be Republicans but consistently undercut conservatism to attract media exposure; 5 Democrats who feign moderation but are liberals who never vote with Republicans when it counts; and 44 unabashedly liberal Democrats who will pretty much run the show.
And just when you thought that the most anti-democratic, worthless institution of government in the civilized world could get no worse, no less than nine of the Senate’s current members have intimated a run for the presidency in 2008 (Clinton, Biden, Obama Kerry, Allen, McCain, Brownback, Hagel, Frist).
To those who follow the issue of climate change, this development should once and for all test the theory that global warming is a man made problem; for the amount of hot air and noxious gasses created by nine or so Senate blowhards running for president should wreck havoc with the ozone layer, expedite the so called Greenhouse Effect, melt away every last chip of ice and raise the earth’s waters to the highest mountain tops. The “up” side to all this is that the Senate will accomplish virtually nothing over the next two years.
U.S. HOUSE OF REPRESENTATIVES
Democrats will pick up 25 seats and wrestle control of the House of Representatives from Republicans for the first time since 1994. The new House will consist of 228 Democrats and 207 Republicans.
Unless Republicans miraculously maintain control of the House, current Speaker Dennis Hastert will resign his leadership position. Meanwhile, wacko liberal Representative Nancy Pelosi (CCCP-CA) is poised to become the first female Speaker.
Representative Pelosi’s ascension to a position just two heart hiccups from the presidency looms as a 2008 disaster for Democrats. Furthermore, natural comparisons between Pelosi’s glass-ceiling breakthrough as well as exposure of the San Francisco Democrat’s radical beliefs will greatly hamstring Senator Clinton’s presidential effort.
GOVERNORSHIPS
Republicans now control 28 of the 50 governorships but will lose seven seats including close contests in Maryland and Minnesota. The new split will be 29 Ds and 21 Rs.
HILLARY
Mrs. Clinton’s landslide reelection for Arkansas, err, Illinois, err, New York Senate is but a nanosecond diversion from her run for president, a quest that began the minute Bill pulled out of DC. Baring a cataclysmic development, Senator Clinton is certain to be the Democrat’s 2008 nominee for president.
Whether or not Hillary becomes the Nation’s first female chief executive hinges upon the emergence of a serious third-party candidate who is capable of swiping 10% or more of the Republican vote.
President Bill Clinton never garnered 50% of the vote in either 1992 or 96, yet won handily because Ross Perot’s folksy Republican-leaning agenda siphoned votes from George blah H. blah Walker blah Bush and Bob ‘Dole is 96.’ The calculating Clintons are well aware that the Democrat base vote is no greater than 43% and in a straight up “man vs. beast” contest the polarizing Hillary is unlikely to prevail.
One possible third-party candidate who would further Mrs. Clinton’s cunning takeover of 1600 Pennsylvania Avenue is CNN’s self-described voice of the middle class, Lou Dobbs, considered by many as the nation’s leading opponent of illegal immigration.
HOMOSEXUAL MARRIAGE
Constitutional amendments to define marriage as between one man and one woman are on eight state ballots. As always, all amendments will pass, proving again that Americans overwhelmingly disapprove of gay marriage and are not afraid to do something about it.
Never in the history of the United States has a state electorate or legislative body voted to sanction homosexual marriage in any fashion. It is only a matter of time before the Congress, State Legislatures and the voters completely nullify the asinine rulings of rogue courts and codify marriage as the way God intended. The gay marriage amendments in Tennessee and Virginia will influence the vote for U.S. Senate.
RAMPAGE
Whatever election winds Republicans had behind their sails diminished and then reversed course in late September when ABC News reported that Representative Mark Foley (R-Florida, Ft. Lauderdale, Key West, Bathhouse) had propositioned underage boys who had served as House pages. A footnote: Prior to ABC’s bombshell report Foley had never publicly admitted his homosexuality, yet the Congressman’s lifestyle was no secret to Washington insiders.
Disclosure of e-mails and instant messages filled with lurid homosexual content, sent from the middle-aged Foley to 16 and 17 year old former pages, was a double-whammy for Republicans. The revelations not only removed pro-Republican issues such as terrorism, taxes and border security from public debate but also provided the media with cover to relentlessly echo the Democrat’s “Culture of Corruption” campaign theme.
Foley’s follies became an instant embarrassment for the Republican Party and damaged the reputations of two prominent leaders, Speaker of the House Dennis Hastert (R-IL) and Republican National Congressional Committee Chairman Representative Thomas Reynolds (R-NY), who admitted previous knowledge of the disgraced Congressman’s maneuvers. Circumstantial evidence indicated that Republican leaders might have failed to adequately protect underage pages, in order to cover up the seedy designs of Foley, a master fundraiser.
Speaker Hastert did his best to plead ignorance. “When Foley asked me for a copy of the Yellow Pages directory, I had no idea he was looking to score with Asian boys,” the embattled 10-term conservative said. “Yes, I admit that the House leadership viewed Foley as someone to stand behind,” the Speaker added, “but I think the reasons for this are obvious.”
With the exception of his immediate resignation from Congress, Foley’s post-outing actions were of no help to his political party. The Congressmen attempted to explain-away his sexual perversions by announcing that he was seeking treatment for alcoholism and, oh by the way, a Roman Catholic priest had molested him four decades prior. Strangely absent from all of Foley’s excuse making was the most plausible and understandable reason for his disgusting behavior: HE WAS A MEMBER OF CONGRESS!
And based upon the statement Foley issued following completion of the standard 12-step rehabilitation program, it appears the former Congressman may not have learned his lesson. “This episode has truly humbled me. Most of all, I have learned that life must be started anew. So, as soon as I return to Washington my first order of business will be to turn over a new page and get back to business.
Moral of the story: Republicans need to keep their closets clean or voters will clean House.
As fate would have it, smack-dab in the middle of the Foley ordeal the originator of the gay page scandal, former Massachusetts Democratic Representative Gerry Studds, died at 69. Yes, that is his real name and actual age.
In the early 1980′s Studds violated a male House page on numerous occasions and was censured by the House of Representatives for his not so subtle Sodom and Gomorrah reenactments. During the reading of the censure motion on the House floor – a motion that passed by a vote of 402 to 3 – Studds defiantly turned his back to his colleagues. After which the voters of Massachusetts defiantly turned their backs on America and reelected Studds to ever-widening margins of victory until his voluntary 1997 retirement.
THE ROD AWARD (2006)
This election’s recipient of the Rod Award is Pennsylvania Republican Representative Don Sherwood.
In 1998, 58-year old Republican Don Sherwood was elected by the razor-thin margin of 500 votes to represent Pennsylvania’s quite, conservative 10th District. Sherwood was a married, family man who campaigned on a platform that included traditional values. He was also a successful car dealer by trade.
So naturally upon arrival to the Nation’s Capital the Congressman’s first order of business involved test driving a new sleek model with low mileage and garaging the old antique, to use an automobile analogy.
Newspaper accounts and court records (stay with me) reveal that Representative Sherwood met a 23-year old floozy named Cynthia Ore (pictured at story’s end) at a 1999 Young Republicans event near the Capitol. Apparently the entire relationship began as a big misunderstanding. Ore remembers their introduction as this:
Cynthia Ore: Hi, so what’s your name?
Don Sherwood: Recently widowed Congressman Don Sherwood of Pennsylvania
This account differs slightly from that of the Congressman whose memory of the introduction goes as follows:
Cynthia Ore: Hi, so what’s your name?
Don Sherwood: Happily married Congressman Don Sherwood of Pennsylvania
Cynthia Ore: I know that my advances are untoward, but I am so lonely and depressed and would do anything to be with a stud like you. Would you like to follow me home and have sex?
Don Sherwood: Sure would
No matter who initiated the relationship it seems obvious that at some point Sherwood’s “sure would” led to “sure wood” and a big, hurtful mess.
Now, fast-forward through five years of decadent extramarital bliss to a fateful day just weeks before the 2004 election. To set the stage, Metropolitan DC police officers are called to Sherwood’s Hill House apartment, based upon a complaint that a Congressman is attempting to illegally dispose of his white trash.
According to court documents Ore told police that Sherwood choked her, but the Congressman informed the officers he was guilty only of giving a feisty massage. Subsequently, Ore filed a civil suit seeking $5.5 million in damages. The Congressman said the suit was bogus, but then settled, agreeing to pay Ore two payments of $250,000, one before and the other after the current election, the second payment contingent upon her silence.
The bottom line is that anytime aspects of a Congressman’s life become an episode of COPS, it’s time for retirement. Republican leaders should have forced Sherwood out. As it stands, Democrats are going to swipe this safe seat.
And if the millionaire car dealer thinks Mistress Cynthia has raked him over the coals, wait till he feels the pain of Mrs. Sherwood’s post-election divorce buyout.
1976 model; hard driven 5 years w/some mileage;
needs work; $500k or best offer
STATE-BY-STATE ANALYSIS OF KEY RACES
ALABAMA
Even with several of his fellow incumbent Republicans drowning and gasping for help, Senator Richard Shelby has squired away and whoreded (sic) a campaign bankroll approaching $15 million. Washington hasn’t seen a bulging treasure chest this impressive since the sultry Elizabeth Ray left town.
ALASKA
Republican Representative Don Young’s famous bridge to nowhere – a $250 million pork barrel monstrosity intended to connect 50 Eskimo villagers with humanity – was blocked when all three members of the Congressional Caucus to Cut Excessive Spending banded together and publicly embarrassed the Alaska lawmaker for his spendthrift ways.
Sadly for taxpayers Washington D.C. spender extraordinaire, Senator Ted Stevens ($$ -Alaska), is lobbying colleagues to fund a new and improved version of the bridge to nowhere, a $25 billion public works project to bypass Canada and directly connect the continental United States with the former Russian territory.
ARIZONA
Arizona Senate – Republican Jon Kyl (I) vs. Democrat Jim Pederson
Conservative Senator Jon Kyl is facing Democrat hack Jim Pederson. Arizona is becoming a less hospitable state for Republicans, mostly due to the seemingly exponential migration of Mexican economic refugees and widespread illegal alien voting.
The race is more competitive than expected but Kyl will win.
ARKANSAS
Out of respect for former President Bill Clinton, George W. H. Bush’s new best friend, Arkansas receives a pass.
CALIFORNIA
Alec Baldwin’s narration for a hatchet job movie exposing Governor Arnold Schwarzenegger’s supposed sordid Nazi past all but sealed the Governor’s reelection. Never underestimate the American people’s hatred of those stupid no-talent Baldwin brothers, especially the fat one.
Governor Schwarzenegger has run a masterful race and will bury his hapless Democrat opponent. Schwarzenegger remains the most popular politician in America mostly due to a commanding leadership charisma that projects strength and optimism.
California House – 4th Congressional District
Republican Representative John Doolittle has done a lot to get booted from this overwhelming Republican District.
For starters Doolittle performed tasks for disgraced and imprisoned Indian Casino lobbyist Jack Abramoff and accepted upwards of $60,000 in campaign contributions from the felon. Next the Congressman hired his wife and daughter to perform fundraising, meaning that 15% of every dollar contributed by a lobbyist directly enriched Doolittle and his family. Then the Wall Street Journal uncovered that Doolittle and his family received a lavish $29,000 vacation from foreign energy lobbyists, a gift not technically required to be disclosed under House rules.
The Congressman’s Democrat opponent is Charlie Brown. I’m not making that up. Mr. Brown, a former member of the Air Force, is completely over matched financially and otherwise, except in the area of ethics. Doolittle will win, but this race is needlessly close and the stench emanating from this Sacramento-based District is disgusting.
Seaside Mayor – Paul C. Mugan vs. Ralph Rubio (I)
Never has an obscure race for local office meant so much for the future of the United States. Venerable fine American, great conservative, excellent family man and awesome friend Paul C. Mugan is vying for the most powerful position in Seaside, California, located on the beautiful Monterey Peninsula. Mr. Mugan faces former mentor and current Mayor Ralph Rubio. While the race is non-partisan, Mugan is a strong conservative Republican while Rubio is a Democrat with union ties.
Mugan, who grew up in Michigan and once resided in Washington D.C., formally worked for Great American Republican Statesman and Minnesota Representative Arlan Stangeland and also served in the United States Air Force. Future mayor Mugan is a wonderful, loyal husband and father.
To say that Mugan’s candidacy has taken Seaside by storm is being timid. Paul is utilizing his experience as a senior planner to bash one Seaside development disaster after another. Mugan’s criticism of an ill-advised Starbucks drive thru that has dangerously and frustratingly snarled Seaside traffic put Mayor Rubio on the defensive.
Mugan enjoys strong backing from the organization of Clint Eastwood and other Monterey County tycoons and noteworthy figures as well as support from unions and other traditional Democrat voting blocks, including Mexican- and African-Americans.
Mr. Mugan – the energetic and loyal follower of President Ronald Reagan and his brand of conservatism – has run a spirited race, outworking his opponent by knocking on Seaside’s doors and utilizing the media and political operatives to gain backing and notoriety. Mugan’s sound political strategy, along with his skillful political maneuverings and youthful enthusiasm will propel him to victory. Paul is an emerging player in Northern California politics.
COLORADO
Admission of mile high drug use and deviant sexual conduct by the Reverend Ted Haggard -former President of the National Association of Evangelicals and vocal opponent of gay unions – did little to settle the argument over Colorado’s two ballot initiatives associated with same sex marriage. But at least we now know the disgraced pastor is qualified to run for Congress!
CONNECTICUT
Connecticut House – 2nd, 4th and 5th Congressional Districts
Semi-worthless Rob Simmons, mostly worthless Nancy Johnson and “you can have him” Christopher Shays, all incumbent Republican Representatives, will be swept out of office by their completely worthless Democrat opponents.
DELAWARE
Not to belabor blabbermouth Biden’s edge-of-our-seats anticipated second run for the White House, but if climate change is proven to be a man made phenomenon at least the Senator will be responsible for expediting Delaware’s extinction. Net Republican gain!
DISTRICT OF COLUMBIA
Legislation under consideration by the Congress would allow the District’s delegate to become a voting member of the House of Representatives, so long as Republican dominated Utah is provided an additional congressional district. That’s actually true.
FLORIDA
In spite of the dark Democratic clouds hovering over Republicans this election, Florida’s chapter of the GOP is enjoying some sunshine. This is due to the continued influx of affluent, fair-minded northeasterners and the solid leadership of popular two-term Governor Jeb Bush who is term-limited and cannot seek reelection.
Governor Bush is by far the best of the Bush lot, but his political future is iffy. The failed presidencies of his father and brother have prompted voters to view “Bush” as a four-letter word in more ways than one. Baring a Hillary Clinton presidency, which would understandably send Republicans into convulsions and dramatically alter the political landscape, successful pursuit of higher office for Governor Bush is unlikely.
Florida Senate – Democrat Bill Nelson (I) vs. Republican Rep. Katherine Harris
Ever since Katherine Harris arrived on the national scene during the 2000 election’s hanging chad calamity, Washington professionals had come to rely on two truths concerning the feisty Republican Congresswoman: (1) Katherine was a competent tactician and (2) she had one of the finest figures on Capitol Hill.
But that was all before Harris’s Senate bid exposed one of those truths as naked, from top to bottom. Sorry, not that one. As dismayed and demoralized Republicans have painfully discovered, the Congresswoman’s campaign management skills are as manic as her cosmetic applications.
Harris’s incompetent and infuriating micromanagement led to the firing or resignation of countless seasoned Republican campaign professionals, all but dooming what should have been a solid GOP chance to unseat the exceptionally weak Nelson. Instead, Senator Nelson wins in a cakewalk.
GEORGIA
Georgia House – 12th Congressional District
The Peach state is also benefiting from northeast migration. The influx of conservative-oriented voters combined with favorable redistricting offers Republicans one of the only opportunities to knock off a Democrat office holder. Former Republican Congressman Max Burns is battling incumbent Democrat John Barrow. Burns will win 51 – 49.
HAWAII
Hawaii Senate – Democrat Daniel Akaka (I, BC) vs. Republican Cynthia Thielen
Akaka’s return to the Senate was assured when he narrowly defeated moderate Democrat Congressman Ed Case in the primary. Both of Hawaii’s Senators are 82-year old Democrats named Daniel (fittingly a name from the Old Testament). Hopefully that big Hawaii sun will soon set on these geezers so popular Republican Governor Linda Lingle can nominate suitable replacements.
IDAHO
As usual, all Republican office holders from the upper levels of State government all the way down to Official Idaho White Supremacist Greeter will cruise to victory.
ILLINOIS
Illinois House – 8th Congressional District
In a normal election year voters of this Republican-leaning northern Illinois district would easily usher freshman incumbent Democrat Melissa Bean from office. In 2004 Bean pulled off one of the country’s most shocking upsets when she narrowly defeated longtime conservative icon Representative Phil Crane (American Conservative Union rating 99; Heineken rating 0.20).
Bean’s opponent is investment banker David McSweeney who has run a competent, well-financed campaign. Were this any other election year McSweeney would score a solid victory, but the Democrat tide will sweep Bean back to Washington for a single encore.
INDIANA
Indiana House – 2nd, 8th and 9th Congressional Districts
Superb incumbent Republican Representatives Chris Chocola, Mark Souder and John Hostettler face three Democrat wolves posing as pro-life, pro-gun, pro-traditional marriage, anti-Islamic and anti-illegal immigrant sheep. Two of the three Republicans will be defeated, but it’s unclear which one the Dems will spare so the horrors inflicted upon Republican Indiana can be reported to demoralized national GOP leaders.
IOWA
Iowa Governor – Republican Jim Nussle vs. Democrat Chet Culver
Retiring U.S. Congressman Jim Nussle was once thought to have this race in the bag.
Speaking of bag, Nussle is a member of the famous Gang of Seven, a group of young conservative Republicans who in the early 1990s donned paper bags over heads and stood on the House floor to protest Democrat mismanagement and corruption. The group’s funny, yet disrespectful antics spotlighted attention on the House bank and post office scandals that contributed to the 1994 Republican takeover.
It may behoove Congressman Nussle to dust off his old Gang of Seven uniform, for after Democrats prevail in the Governor’s race and steal the safe congressional seat he abandoned (1st District), the conservative Congressman may feel like hiding his face in both Iowa and DC for the foreseeable future.
KANSAS
Nothing much to report from Kansas this go around.
KENTUCKY
Kentucky House – 3rd District
Republican Representative Anne Northup is battling to the wire in another tight contest. This time Northup is running against both voter trends and Democrat John Yarmuth, a well-funded and articulate former newspaper publisher. Sooner or later Northup will be displaced from this exceptionally marginal district. But not this time as the Congresswoman skates to a 52 – 48 victory.
LOUISIANA
Former Governor and current convict Edwin Edwards used to joke that the way to lose an election would be for a politician to get caught in bed with a live boy or dead girl. Governor Edwards, may I introduce to you Congressman Mark Foley?
MAINE
The less said about this blue state the better!
MARYLAND
Maryland Governor – Republican Bob Erlich (I) vs. Democrat Peter O’Malley
Maryland Senate – Republican Michael Steel vs. Democrat Ben Cardin
Governor Bob Erlich and his Lt. Governor Michael Steel have run the best two Republican races in the country. Both have been energetic, hard-hitting, articulate and efficient campaigners. Their advertisements have been on the mark and persuasive. On the other hand, O’Malley and Cardin are bore-ass, lightweight candidates who will only win because Democrats dominate Maryland 2 to 1.
Sadly the trend against Republicans will doom both Bob Erlich and Michael Steel, but both will win praises from Party professionals. Erlich and Steel will be heard from again in the near future.
MASSACHUSETTS
Republicans gained/retained one House seat for every day that passed between Senator John Kerry’s insensitive remark concerning the intelligence of the U.S. military and Election Day. Had Kerry opened his trap in mid-October Republicans could have actually saved their House majority.
MICHIGAN
Michigan Senate – Democrat Debbie Stabenow vs. Republican Mike Bouchard
To say that Stabenow presented Republicans with a big target to knock off is being generous to the rotund Senator. Unfortunately Michigan is only a Republican state in a very good Republican year, meaning about two elections every five generations, meaning not this year. Mike Bouchard, a county sheriff, is a fine candidate and the race will be closer than expected but sadly Stabenow will return to the Senate’s stage to perform six more years of her Mama Cass Eliot impersonations.
MINNESOTA
Minnesota House – 1st Congressional District
Though you may have never heard of him, Republican Representative Gil Gutknecht (goo-ten-neck) has wandered into a tough reelection.
Running on a platform that called for massive clean up of Congress and strict 12-year term limits, Representative Gutknecht was first elected to the House in the 1994. During his 1994 campaign the aspiring Congressman promised over and over that he would serve no more than six terms in the House.
So, here we are 12 years later and somehow the Congressman’s name again appears on the ballot. What gives? Reporters asked Gutknecht that very question earlier this year. Not surprisingly the Congressman responded that he had become so important to the 1st District that he owed his precious constituents another term or two.
Gutknecht survives but when Republicans make promises to they need to follow them up.
Minnesota House – 6th Congressional District
Even the worst elections produce fine future leaders for political parties and such is the case with today’s election of Republican Michelle Bachmann to Congress.
Bachmann is a successful State Senator who has championed almost every conceivable conservative cause. Michelle is the sponsor of a constitutional amendment to protect marriage and she is the Senate’s leading critic of abortion.
Bachmann’s opponent is liberal child right’s advocate Patty Wetterling. Wetterling lost a close 2004 race to Representative Mark Kennedy, who is running for the Senate. Wetterling is simply too out of step with the District, which is dominated by conservative Lutherans and Catholics.
Bachmann will become an instant leader in the House of Representatives, but she will pay the heavy price of becoming a permanent target of the national left wing, something that could make her tenure in Congress tenuous.
MISSISSIPPI
My friend JP thinks that Mississippi Governor Haley Barbour will be the next president of the Untied States and Michael Steel his VP. JP might just be a political master genius.
MISSOURI
Missouri Senate – Republican Jim Talent (I) vs. Democrat Clair McCaskill
John Ashcroft once lost this Senate seat to Mel Carnahan who died in plane crash one week before the election. This seat has been busy shifting back and forth over the years. The past six elections look like this: Republican, Democrat, Republican, dead Democrat, Republican and now Democrat. Senator Talent is a good guy and will return to public office, probably in six years when he boots out the unattractive McCaskill.
MONTANA
Montana Senate – Republican Conrad Burns (I) vs. Democrat Jon Tester
Crusty old Senator Conrad Burns may have met his match in crusty old Senator Conrad Burns. Burns worked tirelessly these past six years to remove himself from The Club. No Senator performed more tasks for disgraced and imprisoned Indian Casino lobbyist Jack Abramoff than Conrad. Burns fired off letters to regulators and lawmakers to protect Tonto’s gaming interests with the speed of Keno balls popping out for afternoon game 300. Burns did make inroads by blasting his opponent as a tax-increasing fiend, but the progress was too little, too late. Burns craps out.
NEBRASKA
Just a few hours after the 9-11 attacks on New York City and the Pentagon President Bush was whisked away by Secret Service zealots and transported to Omaha’s Offutt Air Force Base to hide out in a Strategic Air Command bunker. During this ordeal the White House sent longtime Bush hack Karen Hughes before the cameras to assure Americans that all was under control.
After tomorrow’s @ss whipping, President Bush may return to Offutt and not reemerge until Hillary Clinton’s Inauguration.
NEVADA
Nevada Governor – Republican Jim Gibbons vs. Democrat Dina Titus
Republican Representative Jim Gibbons was a lock to win this race until he decided to spend the waning days of the election campaigning in casino lounges with aspiring hookers draped over him.
Allegations made by Rhodes Scholar cocktail waitress Chrissy Mazzeo have moved this race to a dead heat. Mazzeo claims that after she and Gibbons finished a hard night of drinking the gubernatorial candidate accosted her in a parking garage. Gibbons does not deny the initial philandering but says he walked Mazzeo to her car and acted like a complete gentleman. Hey Jim, better late than never!
Obviously Gibbons congressional training has prepared him well for the tough, late-night decisions a governor must face during Las Vegas carousing. Ultimately the Republican will hang on, mostly because lurid behavior is generally encouraged in Nevada.
NEW HAMPSHIRE
Sorry to report this but New Hampshire is already testing the microphones for the first series of presidential debates!
NEW JERSEY
New Jersey Senate – Republican Tom Kean, Jr. vs. Democrat Robert Menendez
It seems like just yesterday that Democrat Senator Robert Torricelli was forced to stand down for reelection and resign from Congress due to a rather thorough FBI investigation into the Senator’s habit of accepting expensive trinkets from guys named Moose and Rocco.
While the practice of accepting bribes from mobsters is considered normal for Jersey politicians, Torricelli made such a mess of things that Democrats, worried about losing the safe seat, whacked the Torch and replaced him with walking cadaver Frank Lautenberg only days before the election.
During the last election cycle the State’s governor, Jim “I’m trying to have his baby” McGreevy admitted to a gay extramarital affair with a state appointee who headed New Jersey’s anti-terrorism office. Even though the scandal exposed a couple of holes in the State’s Homeland Security strategy, Jersey residents yawned and easily elected Democrat Senator Jon Corzine to fill the Governor’s…shoes.
Subsequently, Governor Corzine appointed Democrat Representative Robert Menendez to fill the remainder of his Senate term. Now we are caught up to the current race.
Menendez faces Republican State Senator Thomas Kean, Jr., son of a popular former New Jersey Governor. In the “what else is new” category, Senator Menendez is currently under investigation for using his congressional influence to steer government contracts to “associates.”
Kean is about the best name Republicans can run, but New Jersey’s overwhelming Democrat majority all but assures a Democrat victory. The only suspense on election night will be whether Menendez travels back to Washington or is escorted to Attica.
As an aside, the great William F. Buckley, Jr. once stated that he would rather be governed by the first 2,000 names of the Boston phone book than by the faculty of Harvard University. Tweaking Buckley’s thinking it would only make sense that New Jersey’s residents would rather be governed by the first 10 names of the FBI’s Most Wanted, rather than these crooked politician buffoons, EXCEPT THAT THEY ALREADY ARE!
NEW MEXICO
New Mexico House – 1st Congressional District
Five-term Congresswoman Heather Wilson has run another clunker of a campaign. Voters will finally end the political career of the former Air Force Academy spinster who has run several close races. At least the Congresswoman will have plenty of time to clean out her closet.
NEW YORK
New York House – 26th Congressional District
As Chairman of the House Republican Congressional Committee, Representative Thomas Reynolds’s job is to ensure the election of Republican candidates. Unfortunately one candidate Reynolds failed to adequately help was Thomas Reynolds.
Reynolds became embroiled in the Mark Foley scandal due to his beforehand knowledge of the Congressman’s foibles. Further adding to Reynolds’s troubles was a column by Robert Novak alleging that Congressman Foley was ready to leave the House in 2005, but Reynolds convinced him to run for another term. The charge against Reynolds is not that he wanted Foley to stay in office to assure a Republican victory (Foley’s District is solidly Republican) but that he needed master fundraiser Foley to raise money for other candidates.
Reynolds tried to deflect the criticism, saying that Foley was angling to become the Chief Executive of the Boy Scouts of America. But all to no avail as Reynolds loses.
NORTH CAROLINA
North Carolina House – 11th Congressional District
Veteran Republican Representative Charles Taylor is under investigation for sponsoring earmarks to build roads that dramatically increased the value of his personal property holdings. Meanwhile Democrats recruited former University of Tennessee and NFL quarterback Heath Shuler as their candidate.
Shuler, a self-described evangelical Christian, has run a very good campaign, spouting conservative themes of pro-gun, pro-life and pro-apple pie. The novice politician has also done a good job of keeping his mouth shut and not making mistakes.
The one glaring error made by Shuler’s campaign was inviting Senator Ted Kennedy into the District to give a spirited fundraising speech. Kennedy caught the former failed Redskins quarterback off guard when he said: “Now I understand that Heath was a pretty good QB at UT, but he failed to connect with receivers when he was with the Redskins. But don’t you worry about Heath’s success on this trip to Washington, because when he takes the field in Congress I am going to take him under my wing and teach him a thing or two about completing passes.”
Taylor deserves to lose and empty suit Shuler wins 53-47.
NORTH DAKOTA
Just another non-eventful day in North Dakota.
OHIO
Ohio House – 15th Congressional District
Self described moderate Republican Representative Deborah Pryce is going to lose to liberal Democrat lawyer Mary Jo Kilroy. Pryce is the Republican Conference Chairman, the fourth most powerful House Republican position.
Pryce is in trouble because it appears that she may have used her leadership position to cover up the dealings of her close friend Mark Foley. Added to the Congresswoman’s troubles is an old magazine article in which she lists Foley as one of her five favorite people in Washington. As reported, Foley was Pryce’s third favorite inside the beltway type, but what many found even more surprising was that Pryce listed Foley just ahead of disgraced and imprisoned Indian lobbyist Jack Abramoff and, fittingly, right behind Representative Barney Frank.
Any Republican from a marginal District who is stupid enough to list a closeted homosexual as one of her five favorite DC friends should never have been elected to the House leadership and probably deserves to be kicked out of office.
OKLAHOMA
Oklahoma is home of America’s two finest Senators, Republicans James Inhofe and Tom Colburn. Thanks Oklahoma!
OREGON
Nothing to report.
PENNSYLVANIA
Pennsylvania Senate – Republican Rick Santorum (I) vs. Democrat Bob Casey
Stalwart Conservative Rick Santorum may have packed his bags and already bid his Senate staff goodbye, but he is unloading the whole nine yards on the way out of office.
Santorum’s opponent is the non-descript and intellectually challenged Bob Casey, son and namesake of the late former Governor. Casey’s pro-life credentials chipped away at Santorum’s strength (Catholic voters) and coupled with Pennsylvania’s strong anti-Iraq sentiment made the Senator’s reelection virtually impossible.
Santorum’s last advertisement barrage charges Casey and the Democrats with not understanding the threats posed by Iran, North Korea, al Qaeda…well pretty much everything short of the Riddler, Joker, Penguin and Cat Woman. Even though the spots are compelling and expose Democrat weakness, as always, Santorum’s attacks have backfired, coming off as too smug and over-the-top brash.
Casey wins 56-44, but the young Santorum will be heard from again.
Pennsylvania House – 7th Congressional District
Veteran Republican Curt Weldon is best known for his ability to identify potential conspiracies or even maybe make some up. Weldon is considered by many, but most especially himself, as an expert on Intelligence and Defense issues.
Shortly before the election Weldon was informed that the FBI has been conducting an indepth investigation concerning allegations that the Congressman may have used his office to assist foreign governments and businesses in return for the hiring of his daughter and a longtime friend to highly paid lobbying contracts. Weldon was shocked that the government would publicize its investigation so close to Election Day. Well Curt, there’s a conspiracy you seem to have missed!
Weldon is crushed.
RHODE ISLAND
Republican In Name Only and major embarrassment Senator Lincoln Chaffee is finally getting a well-deserved boot from Congress. Had Lincoln’s name not been Chaffe he would have never amounted to whatever little he has amounted to in life. Note to Rhode Island’s welfare officials: come Wednesday morning a weasely looking character will be knocking on your door.
SOUTH CAROLINA
Republican Governor Mark Sanford is a class act. He once brought two pigs into the state capital building to protest the pork barrel spending habits of his own Republican dominated legislature. If President Bush were 10% of this guy Republicans would be rolling to victory tonight.
SOUTH DAKOTA
A referendum to ban abortions is on the ballot and will pass by the margin of liberals who were aborted and failed to vote.
TENNESSEE
Tennessee Senate – Republican Bob Corker vs. Democrat Harold Ford, Jr.
The Corker campaign didn’t get ratcheted into high gear until mid-October, exactly the time Harold Ford, Jr. began meltdown.
The smooth-talking Congressman ran an energetic race and almost had the conservative state convinced he was God fearing, trustworthy and moderate, which he very well may be, but Ford’s campaign peaked a month early and then completely unraveled after Republicans ran an advertisement reminding voters that the hard partying Ford hangs out with Playboy’s Hugh Hefner, an insinuation that the black Congressman prefers white girls.
Tennessee Republicans will pop the Corker tonight.
TEXAS
Texas House – 22nd District
After using public office to pad the family bankroll and manipulating the political action committee rules to lavishly jet set around like one of Robin Leach’s Lifestyles of the Rich and Famous, former House Majority Leader Tom Delay resigned, and thankfully so.
Democrats have an excellent chance to capture Delay’s seat and hand the Republicans a tough loss. Former Representative Nick Lampson is the running against Republican Shelley Sekula-Gibbs. Because Delay quit after the primary, his name could not be removed from the ballot, meaning that Sekula-Gibbs is forced to run a write-in campaign. Nothing like educating 125,000 brilliant Texans how to spell Sekula-Gibbs. Lampson wins easily.
UTAH
Ironically Republican strong Utah offers liberals their best hope of defeating a ballot initiative mandating that marriage be limited to one man and one woman.
VERMONT
Thankfully worthless sniveling turncoat left wing Senator James Jeffords is not seeking reelection. His replacement will be Representative Bernie Sanders, an avowed progressive who actually runs under the Socialist Party banner.
Socialist Sanders will join communist comrade Senator Pat Leahy (USSR-VT). Leahy is so admired for his bipartisan approach that during the previous Congress Vice President Cheney, while conversing on the Senate floor, politely told the Senator to F-off. Reportedly the actual quote is captured by the acronym FUPAT.
VIRGINIA
Virginia Senate – George ‘Macaca’ Allen vs. Jim ‘Penthouse’ Webb
If Senator George Allen is booted from office at least he will have nobody to blame but himself. Allen has run the worst reelection campaign of any Republican in the United States.
The Senator’s opponent is Jim Webb, former Secretary of the Navy during the Reagan administration. Though crusty and old school, Webb is a refreshing candidate who communicates somewhat freely, both fiction and non-fiction. He is also a battle tested Marine who served in the Viet Nam War. Webb’s Marine son is currently stationed in Iraq.
To say this race has been an issueless sideshow is putting things lightly. First Allen called a Webb campaign worker “macaca,” a racial slur in some cultures, prompting Democrats to remind voters of Allan’s vote against the Martin Luther King holiday and the Senator’s fine collection of Confederate memorabilia. Then Allen and Webb charged each other with using the N-word in past life, something both agreed was so heinous that it would disqualify a candidate from serving in public office. At this point, had there been the least amount of honesty in this race, both candidates would have withdrawn and Virginia could have toughed it out one Senator short during the next Congress – ok, come to think of it, when you consider John Warner’s credentials, Virginia would be two Senators short. Then when reporters questioned Senator Allen about his mom’s Jewish heritage, the former football coach’s son reacted as though the charge was a demeaning slur. Meanwhile Allen hammered Webb for statements made 20 and 30 years ago that displayed chauvinism, especially toward women in the military. And finally, the Allen campaign released a series of passages from fictitious novels authored by Webb that included every type of graphic sexual act except something involving midgets. And finally, finally, Democrat operatives called upon Allen to release divorce records in order to prove that his first wife did not allege that he once spit on her.
In the end this mess shakes out like this. Webb will snag some Republican crossover, especially a big chunk of the Navy and military vote from the Virginia Beach/Tidewater areas. Meanwhile, evangelical turnout should be strong because Virginia is set to decide the fate of gay marriage. Webb opposes the amendment to ban gay marriage, which will pass easily. This development is a big boost to Allen. Coin flip. Oh, oh, it came up tails…hook. Allen loses.
And to think that just four of five months ago Senator Allen was one of the leading candidates for the 2008 Republican presidential nomination. Given the way he conducted this campaign, Allen may as well have been setting his sights on the job of “Supreme Ruler of the Earthly Universe.” At least there will be one less senator running for president.
WASHINGTON
Underachieving left-wing Democrat Senator Maria Cantwell handily wins reelection.
WEST VIRGINIA
Patrons within the Senate Hart office-building were aghast when exactly one week before Election Day a man dressed in what appeared to be full Klan regalia visited the office of Senator Barak Obama (D-IL). Anxious staff members were somewhat reassured when Capitol Police investigators reported that the perpetrator in question was none other than Senator Robert C. Byrd (KKK-WV) who claimed to be trick or treating in his new “Casper” costume.
West Virginia has trended Republican these past few elections and in a neutral year a solid GOP candidate could have given the elderly Byrd his toughest reelection challenge since Reconstruction. Nonetheless, the Senate’s self-appointed historian will be reelected to term VXIICV. Can anyone say: carried out in a box?
WISCONSIN
Gay impersonator Senator Herb Kohl is reelected again!
WYOMING
As a continued show of pride for Wyoming’s favorite son, signs on all three paved roads leading into the State now read:
If you’re a conservative Republican, Vice President Dick Cheney welcomes you.
If not, FU and get the hell out of here!
And finally, the only Wyoming residents not voting Republican are the saps Dick Cheney shot in the head or ran off the road en route to his “big time” number of DUIs.
Posted on November 7th, 2006 by jhagedorn
Filed under: The Masterpiece Analysis Collection | Comments Off
